Highlights

• • Avdeeva has a clear career win-rate advantage versus Mikulskyte
• • Current odds (1.714) imply less probability than our model, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Experience and consistency advantage for Avdeeva

Cons

• - Limited recent-match detail and uncertain surface-specific form
• - No H2H or injury data provided — some model uncertainty remains

Details

We see a clear experience and career-win advantage for Julia Avdeeva (career record ~559-507) versus Justina Mikulskyte (10-21 in her short recorded span). Market-implied probability for Avdeeva at 1.714 is ~58.3%, but after adjusting for experience, broader surface versatility and a stronger long-term win rate we estimate a true win probability of 62.0% for Avdeeva. Justina's limited sample and losing record suggest she is the underdog in form and depth despite a slightly longer recent play on similar surfaces; there are no injury flags in the provided research. Using our estimated probability (0.62) against the available decimal price (1.714) produces a positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.063 per unit), so we recommend backing the away player at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Large career experience and higher overall win rate for Avdeeva
• • Justina's limited match wins (10-21) and shorter career sample
• • Market-implied probability (58.3%) is lower than our estimated win chance (62%)