Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability (82.4%) is slightly higher than our estimate (80%).
• • Minimum fair odds for value on the favorite would be 1.250; current book price is 1.214.

Pros

• + Market strongly favors the home player, consistent with our assessment that she is the likeliest winner.
• + Research shows no clear injuries or disqualifying form issues that would overturn the favorite status.

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.214) is too short versus our fair odds (1.250), producing negative EV.
• - Limited and overlapping research data for both players prevents a confident edge against the market.

Details

We examined the market prices (Justina Mikulskyte 1.214, Alize Lim 4.05) and the available player profiles. The market implies Justina has ~82.4% chance to win; based on the limited research (both players show long similar careers and recent mixed results with no clear injury or surface advantage), we estimate a true win probability for Justina of ~80.0%. That estimate produces a minimum fair price of 1.250; the current favorite price (1.214) is shorter than our required 1.250, so it offers negative expected value. There is no positive EV on the underdog at 4.05 given our assessment of the matchup probability. Therefore we do not recommend a side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.214) is ~82.4%, slightly shorter than our 80% estimate
• • Research shows similar career profiles and recent mixed form for both players with no clear advantage
• • Absence of injury/surface/H2H information prevents identifying an edge that would justify taking the favorite at current price