Highlights

• • Market price 2.50 implies 40% chance; we estimate 57%
• • Positive EV of +0.425 (42.5% ROI) per unit at current odds

Pros

• + Large experience and higher career win rate in favor of Cagla
• + Current odds (2.50) are well above our fair-price threshold

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both players and increases uncertainty
• - Age and potential fatigue/injury concerns for a long-career player could reduce edge

Details

We see a clear value gap between the market and our assessment. The market odds (Cagla 2.50) imply a 40.0% win probability, but based on the research Cagla Buyukakcay's long career win baseline (559-507) and broader surface experience give her a notable edge versus Justina Mikulskyte (10-21 career). Justina's sample is small and her recent results show limited success, while Cagla's depth of matches and demonstrated competence on multiple surfaces reduce variance risk. Conservatively adjusting for age and form uncertainty, we estimate Cagla's true win probability at 57.0%, which yields a positive expected value at the available 2.50 price. At that probability, the minimum fair decimal price would be ~1.754; the current 2.50 quote therefore represents material value.

Key factors

• • Cagla Buyukakcay's extensive career experience and higher long-term win rate
• • Justina Mikulskyte's limited match sample and weaker recent record
• • Market-implied probability (40%) is materially below our conservative estimate (57%)