Justine Bretnacher vs Aya El Sayed

Highlights

• • Aya priced at 1.32 implies ~75.8% win probability
• • Our conservative true probability for Justine is 35%, yielding ~10% ROI at 3.15

Pros

• + Clear disparity between market-implied probability and Aya's documented win rate and recent losses
• + Bookmaker's long price on the home player (3.15) provides positive expected value under conservative assumptions

Cons

• - No performance, ranking, or surface data provided for Justine Bretnacher—introduces substantial uncertainty
• - Absence of H2H and injury details means our probability estimate is necessarily conservative and could be wrong

Details

We find value backing the home underdog Justine Bretnacher at 3.15. The market strongly favors Aya El Sayed (1.32 => ~75.8% implied) despite Aya's limited win record this season (10-21, ~32% career win rate) and recent straight losses in early September, which suggest she may be over-priced here. There is no performance data for Bretnacher in the provided research, so we adopt a conservative upgrade for the home player to a 35% true-win probability based on Aya's weak recent form and overall win rate. At our 35% estimate the break-even decimal odds are 2.857; the offered 3.15 exceeds that, producing positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.15 - 1 = 0.103). We note high uncertainty from missing head-to-head, ranking, and surface specifics for Bretnacher, so we price this as a medium-risk value play rather than a heavy conviction.

Key factors

• • Aya El Sayed's season record is weak (10-21, ~32% wins)
• • Aya's recent results show straight losses in early September, indicating poor form
• • Market heavily favors Aya (1.32) which may overstate her chances given available form data