Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Ezzat (95%) is implausible based on her record
• • At 8.0, Justine only needs ~12.5% true chance to break even; our conservative 18% estimate gives strong EV

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and documented form of the favorite
• + High upside: sizable ROI at current odds under conservative probability estimates

Cons

• - No player profile or form data available for Justine increases model risk
• - If market price reflects bookmaker info not in our research (injury, withdrawal, walkover, ranking gap), value can evaporate

Details

We find clear value on the home underdog (Justine Bretnacher) versus Yasmin Ezzat. The market price of Away=1.05 implies an extremely high 95.2% chance for Ezzat, which is inconsistent with the research showing Ezzat has a 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) and a poor recent run of results. Although we have no direct profile for Justine, the existing data on Ezzat strongly suggests the market is overstating her probability. Conservatively estimating Justine's true win probability at 18% (i.e., Ezzat ~82%) produces a positive expected value when backing Justine at the available 8.0 decimal price. We acknowledge significant uncertainty because of the missing profile for Justine and limited context, so we keep our probability conservative rather than assuming a much larger upset chance.

Key factors

• • Ezzat's career record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and recent form shows multiple losses
• • Market implies a near-certain win for Ezzat (1.05) which is inconsistent with her documented results
• • No available profile on Justine increases uncertainty, but the current 8.0 price for the home underdog provides value even under conservative assumptions