Highlights

• • Away heavily favoured by market (1.16) — would require >86.2% true win rate to be profitable
• • Home underdog (4.8) needs to be ≥5.556 to be fair based on our 18% estimate

Pros

• + Home price of 4.8 offers a large payout if an upset occurs
• + Market is clear and stable — prices reflect strong favourite status

Cons

• - Current prices do not provide positive expected value versus our conservative probabilities
• - High uncertainty due to lack of data on form, surface, injuries and pair chemistry

Details

We have no independent web data for form, injuries, surface or H2H, so we take a conservative modelling approach. The market prices the away side as a near-certainty at 1.16 (implied win probability ~86.2%) and the home side at 4.8 (implied ~20.8%). Given the lack of supporting information and the typical uncertainty in doubles matches, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 18% (0.18). At that probability the minimum fair decimal price for the home side would be ~5.556, so the current home price of 4.8 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.18 * 4.8 - 1 = -0.136). Conversely, the favourite at 1.16 would need an >86.2% true probability to be profitable; we cannot justify that level of certainty without data. Therefore no side offers positive EV at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • No supplementary data returned — must be conservative about true probabilities
• • Market-implied probabilities: Away ~86.2% (1.16), Home ~20.8% (4.8)
• • Our conservative estimate for home (18%) is below the implied 20.8%, producing negative EV at 4.8