Highlights

• • Market implies ~81.97% for home; we estimate 80%
• • Break-even odds for our estimate: 1.25; current 1.22 is below that

Pros

• + Home is a clear market favorite, suggesting real strength
• + If additional confirming info (injury, poor form for away) appears, value could emerge

Cons

• - No independent data to justify a higher probability than the market
• - Current odds do not clear our conservative threshold for positive EV

Details

We estimate the home pair K. Dmitruk/Mimi Xu to have roughly an 80.0% chance to win given the heavy favorite status but lack of confirmatory data (no recent form, surface, or injury info). The market decimal of 1.22 implies about an 81.97% chance, which is slightly higher than our conservative estimate and likely already includes bookmaker margin. At our estimated true probability (0.80) the break-even odds are 1.25, so the current 1.22 offers no positive expected value. Given the absence of external data and the low margin between market and our estimate, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data available (form, H2H, injuries, surface) — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability (1/1.22 = 81.97%) slightly exceeds our estimate (80%) after accounting for vig
• • Tight margin between our estimate and market means little or no value on the heavy favorite