Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.74) > our estimate, but not enough to create +EV
• • Away price (2.00) would require a higher true probability than we estimate to be valuable

Pros

• + Market favors the home pair, which aligns with our conservative estimate
• + No known red flags (injuries/form) in available information to strongly shift probability

Cons

• - Current prices include bookmaker margin and do not offer positive expected value
• - Lack of concrete data (H2H, surface performance) increases uncertainty of our estimate

Details

We conservatively estimate the home pair (K. Ibrahim/O. Ojakaar) has a ~55.0% chance to win based on the market favouring them and absence of contrary information. Market-implied probabilities are ~57.5% for home (1.74) and 50.0% for away (2.00), which includes a noticeable bookmaker margin (~7.5% overround). Using our conservative true probability of 0.55 for the home side, the expected value at the current home price (decimal 1.74) is negative: EV = 0.55 * 1.74 - 1 = -0.043 (–4.3% ROI). The away side at 2.00 would require a true win probability >50% to be +EV; under our assessment the away chance is ~45% so EV = 0.45 * 2.00 - 1 = -0.10 (–10% ROI). Both sides are negative EV at current widely-available prices, so we do not recommend taking a side. To find value, we would need home odds ≥ 1.818 (implied by our 55% estimate) or away odds > 2.222 (implied by our 45% estimate). We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on recent form, injuries, or surface advantages — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Market shows home favoritism but contains bookmaker margin (overround ~7.5%)
• • Current quoted prices (Home 1.74, Away 2.00) do not clear our required thresholds for positive EV