Highlights

• • Market favorite (home) priced at 1.72; our conservative fair price ~1.786
• • Negative expected value at current odds (≈ -3.7% ROI)

Pros

• + Home side is the market favorite, suggesting some underlying edge
• + Odds are not deeply skewed; markets appear reasonably efficient

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, H2H, injuries) to justify upgrading our probability
• - Small differences between market and our estimate mean results are sensitive to small errors in assumptions

Details

We have no external match data to shift the market materially and therefore apply conservative assumptions. The market prices make K. Ibrahim/O. Ojakaar the favorite at 1.72 (implied ~58.1%). After accounting for bookmaker margin and the opaque information set (no form, surface, H2H or injury data), we estimate a slightly lower true win probability of 56% for the home pair. At that probability the fair decimal price would be about 1.786, which is higher than the available 1.72, so the available market price does not offer positive expected value. Given the uncertainty around doubles pairings and lack of corroborating data, we do not recommend taking the favorite at current odds.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, H2H or injury information available — high informational uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (home 1.72) appears slightly shorter than our conservative true probability estimate
• • Bookmaker margin reduces raw implied probabilities and eliminates small value edges
• • Doubles matches have high variance; small edges are unreliable without data