K. Ibrahim/S. Ivanov vs M. Kaufman/A. Shvangiradze
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive edge on the away pair at 9.0 based on a conservative 12% win estimate (min required odds 8.333). The opportunity is value-positive but carries high uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability 12% vs market-implied 11.1%
- • Offered odds (9.0) exceed min-required (8.333), yielding ~8% EV
Pros
- + Measured small positive expected value at current price
- + Doubles volatility can produce mispriced heavy favorites in small events
Cons
- - Very limited information on lineups, form, surface and injuries
- - High variance and probability of bookmaker accuracy — downside risk significant
Details
The market prices the home pair at 1.06 (implied ~94.3%) and the away pair at 9.0 (implied ~11.1%). With no external injury/H2H/surface data available we adopt conservative assumptions that heavy favorites in small events can be slightly overvalued and doubles matches carry higher variance. We estimate the away pair's true win probability at 12.0%, which implies a fair price of 8.333. The offered away price of 9.0 is larger than our min-required 8.333, producing a positive expected value. Given the uncertainty from missing information (lineups, form, surface, injuries) we keep the probability conservative but still find a small edge: EV = 0.12 * 9.0 - 1 = 0.08 (8% ROI per unit staked).
Key factors
- • Market implies away probability ~11.1% while our conservative estimate is 12.0%
- • Small-event doubles matches have higher variance and occasional mispricing
- • No available injury, form, H2H, or surface data increases uncertainty