Highlights

• • Away price (2.52) is slightly above our required fair odds (2.50).
• • Opportunity is small and vulnerable to updated info (injury, lineup, late-market moves).

Pros

• + Current odds offer a positive expected value versus our conservative probability estimate.
• + Hard surface provides no clear disqualifying factor given the limited data.

Cons

• - Edge is very small (0.8% ROI) and could disappear with minor probability adjustments.
• - No supplementary data on recent form, injuries, or H2H to strengthen conviction.

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our independent estimate. The provided market prices (Home 1.50 -> implied 66.7%; Away 2.52 -> implied 39.7%) show the market strongly favors the home side. With only surface (hard) and no injury or form data available, we take a conservative baseline view that the match is relatively competitive and assign G. Dabrowski/E. Routliffe a 40.0% win probability. At decimal 2.52 this translates to a small positive edge: EV = 0.40 * 2.52 - 1 = +0.008 (0.8% ROI). The minimum fair odds to break even on our assessment are 2.500; the current price of 2.52 is slightly better, creating measurable but modest value. We note this is a low-margin value opportunity and sensitive to small changes in our probability estimate or market price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (home 66.7%, away 39.7%) vs our conservative 40.0% for away
• • Surface is hard (neutral baseline rather than a strong tilt to either side given no other data)
• • No injury/form/H2H details available, so small margins of error materially affect EV