Highlights

• • Normalized market-implied win probability for home ≈ 64.1%
• • Required decimal odds for value on home side: ≥ 1.560; current is 1.47

Pros

• + Market pricing appears internally consistent after removing vig
• + Hard court is a neutral baseline when no further player-specific data is available

Cons

• - Current available price for the favorite (1.47) yields a negative EV
• - Insufficient additional data (form/injuries/H2H) in research to justify a divergence from market-implied probabilities

Details

We normalize the provided market odds to remove bookmaker vig and derive a market-implied true probability. Implied probabilities from the quoted decimals are 68.03% (home 1.47) and 38.17% (away 2.62), which normalize to approximately 64.1% for the home side and 35.9% for the away side. With only surface (hard court) information available and no verified, separate form/injury/H2H data to justify deviating from the market, our conservative estimate of the true probability for K. Siniakova/T. Townsend to win is 0.641. At the current home price of 1.47 (odds used for EV), that produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.641 * 1.47 - 1 = -0.058), so the market price does not offer value. To be profitable long-term we would require a decimal price ≥ 1.560 for the home side given our probability estimate. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability normalized for bookmaker margin gives ~64.1% for the home side
• • Surface is hard (outdoor) — no decisive tilt available from provided data
• • No additional verified form, injury, or H2H data provided to justify deviating from the market