Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (84.8%) exceeds our estimate (75.0%)
• • Current odds would need to be >=1.333 to be +EV

Pros

• + Opponents include a player with very limited recent success (Yang 0-3)
• + Zeng's record is serviceable but not dominant enough to force such a heavy market discount

Cons

• - No data provided on the home pairing's form or head-to-head to justify >84.8% true probability
• - Even conservative estimates show a negative ROI at the current 1.18 price

Details

The market prices the home pair at 1.18 (implied probability ~84.8%). Our assessment, using only the provided player data, discounts that extreme favorite pricing. Zijiang Yang has a very limited and poor recent record (0-3) and appears inexperienced; Yaojie Zeng has a reasonable singles record (20-18) but mixed recent results. There is no provided data on the home pairing's form or record to justify an implied win probability above ~85%. Conservatively, we estimate the true win probability for the home side at 75.0%. At that probability the required decimal odds to be +EV are 1.333; the current price of 1.18 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.75 * 1.18 - 1 = -0.115). Given the lack of supporting data for a >84.8% true probability and the negative EV at current market odds, we cannot recommend betting the home side at 1.18. If the market offered >=1.333 for the home side, that would be acceptable value according to our model.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~84.8% for home (1.18) which is very high
• • Zijiang Yang has a very limited and poor recent record (0-3)
• • Yaojie Zeng has mixed form (20-18 career) but no dominant evidence to justify heavy underdog removal