Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability = 92.6%; we estimate ~78%
• • Break-even decimal for home at our estimate = ~4.545; current is 7.5

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated fair odds
• + Harrison's documented poor recent results undermine the short-price favorite narrative

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks data on doubles chemistry, partner form, and surface
• - Upset risk is naturally higher in lower-liquidity events and anomalous matchups

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (home 1/7.5 = 13.33%, away 1/1.08 = 92.59%) to what the available form data suggests. C. Harrison's documented career record through 2025 is 10-21 with a very weak recent string of results, which makes the market pricing the away side as a >92% favorite look extreme. There is no supporting evidence in the provided research that Harrison/A. Lahey as a pair are overwhelmingly superior to K. Veldman/S. Yardley, and doubles/team chemistry or partner form is not shown. Conservatively adjusting for Harrison's poor win rate and recent losses, we estimate the away pair's true win probability substantially lower than the market (away ~78%, home ~22%). Using those estimates, the home moneyline at 7.5 offers value: EV = 0.22*7.5 - 1 = 0.65 (65% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Therefore we recommend backing the home side because the current price (7.5) is significantly higher than the break-even price implied by our probability.

Key factors

• • Market implies away win probability >92% which is extreme given available form data
• • C. Harrison's 10-21 career record and poor recent results suggest lower than-market expectancy
• • Limited information on partners and surface increases uncertainty and favors pricing inefficiencies