Highlights

• • Current home odds 2.88 imply 34.7% win probability
• • We estimate home true probability ~25%, so EV is negative at current price

Pros

• + Allen has shown strong single-match service metrics in isolated matches (1st serve won spikes), indicating some upside
• + Allen has experience on both clay and hard surfaces, suggesting adaptability

Cons

• - Poor recent form and overall losing record (10-21) reduce confidence in a home-side win
• - No reliable data on partner (M. Stankiewicz) or the opposing pair to suggest matchup advantage

Details

We focus on the home side (K. Allen/M. Stankiewicz) because the only concrete research provided concerns K. Allen. Allen's career record (10-21) and a string of recent losses indicate weak form. The market currently prices the home team at 2.88 (implied probability 34.7%). Based on Allen's poor recent W-L and limited positive signals in the research, we estimate the true probability of the home pair winning at about 25.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 4.000, well above the current 2.88 on offer. Using the quoted price of 2.88 gives a negative expected return (EV = 0.25 * 2.88 - 1 = -0.28), so there is no value to back the home team at current prices. Given the lack of data for Stankiewicz and the opponents, plus Allen's recent form, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Allen's overall poor recent record (10-21) and recent string of losses
• • Market-implied probability for home (34.7%) is higher than our estimated true chance (25%)
• • Insufficient data on partner and opponent pair makes uncertainty higher