K. Dmitruk/Mimi Xu vs G. Knutson/M. Rapolu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the home team (K. Dmitruk/Mimi Xu) at 2.25 based on a conservative 46% win probability; EV is modest (~3.5%) and uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Current price 2.25 exceeds our fair threshold (2.174)
- • Estimated ROI is +3.5% per unit at current odds
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current quoted odds
- + Conservative probability estimate avoids overstatement of edge
Cons
- - Small edge — limited margin for error
- - High uncertainty due to absence of concrete form, surface, or injury data
Details
We believe the market price (Home 2.25, Away 1.58) overstates the away pairing's advantage. The implied market probability for the home side is ~44.4% (1/2.25), but the book build includes an overround (~7.7%) and unknowns in this Evora doubles matchup. Given the lack of injury, surface, and form data, we apply a conservative adjustment and estimate the true win probability for K. Dmitruk/Mimi Xu at 46.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~2.174. Since the available price of 2.25 is above our required threshold, it represents positive expected value: EV = 0.46 * 2.25 - 1 = 0.035 (3.5% ROI). We prefer the home side only because the calculated EV is positive at current widely-available odds; however the edge is modest and uncertainty is elevated due to absence of detailed match data.
Key factors
- • Market overround (~7.7%) can create value after removing bookmaker margin
- • No reliable external data on form/injuries/H2H — we use conservative probability adjustments
- • Home pairing likely closer than market implies given uncertainty in away advantage