K. Drzewiecki/J. Zielinski vs J. Cash/L. Glasspool

Highlights

• • Home price 3.4 exceeds our fair-odds threshold (3.333) by a narrow margin
• • Edge is very small and based on conservative assumptions in the absence of match-specific data

Pros

• + Slight positive expected value at current market price
• + Conservative probability estimate reduces likelihood of overstatement of edge

Cons

• - Edge is marginal (≈2% ROI) and easily evaporates with modest information updates
• - High uncertainty due to no available research on form, injuries, surface, or H2H

Details

We have no independent match data, so we adopt a conservative neutral-prior approach. The market prices imply probabilities of ~76.9% for the away side (1.3) and ~29.4% for the home side (3.4), with an implied market overround of ~6.3%. Given the lack of form/injury/surface/H2H info, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for K. Drzewiecki/J. Zielinski at 30.0%. That implies fair decimal odds of 3.333. The current quoted home price of 3.4 is slightly higher than that break-even point, producing a small positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 3.4 - 1 = 0.02). The edge is marginal and carries elevated uncertainty because it is based on limited information, but numerically the home side shows positive EV at current market pricing.

Key factors

• • No independent form, injury, surface, or H2H data available — high information uncertainty
• • Market-implied probabilities: away ~76.9% (1.3), home ~29.4% (3.4) with ~6.3% overround
• • Our conservative true probability estimate for home (30%) yields fair odds of 3.333, slightly below the market price of 3.4