Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability: 56.0%
• • Required fair odds for value on home: 1.786 (market: 1.74) — no value

Pros

• + Home team is the market favorite, suggesting some underlying edge exists
• + Margin between fair and market price is small — situation could flip with new info

Cons

• - Insufficient public data (form/surface/injuries/H2H) increases model uncertainty
• - Current odds do not offer positive expected value after conservative adjustments

Details

We estimate a modest home edge for K. Soeda/S. Tsujioka but, given no external form, surface, injury or H2H data and a conservative approach to uncertainty, we set the home win probability at 56.0%. The current market price for the home side (1.74 decimal) implies ~57.5% but after accounting for bookmaker margin and uncertainty our required fair odds are ~1.786. Because 1.74 < 1.786 the market does not offer positive expected value on the home side. The away price (2.00) would require an implied probability ≤50.0% to be +EV; our conservative estimate for the away side is ~44.0%, so that price is also not attractive. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, injuries, surface or H2H — we apply a conservative uncertainty discount
• • Market implies a slight home favorite but price (1.74) is below our required fair odds (1.786)
• • Away price (2.00) would require a materially higher subjective probability than we assign