Highlights

• • Book implies ~89.2% for Francesco; our fair estimate ~86%
• • No value on either side given the provided information

Pros

• + Francesco's grass experience aligns with match surface advantage
• + Both players are active at the event, so no obvious fitness concern reported

Cons

• - Market price for Francesco is extremely short, offering negative EV vs our estimate
• - Kai's lack of documented grass experience reduces the plausibility of a bigger upset probability

Details

We compared the market price (Francesco Maestrelli 1.121, implied ~89.2%) to our assessment of true probabilities. Francesco has recorded matches on grass in his profile and therefore carries a surface familiarity advantage; Kai Wehnelt's profile does not list grass appearances, which is a negative for him on this surface. Both players show continued activity at the Tulln Challenger and similar career-level experience, so while Francesco is the clear favorite, the market price is extremely short. We estimate Francesco's true win probability at 86.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.163; that is longer than the current 1.121 offered, so there is no positive expected value at available prices. Given the limited additional evidence (no reported injuries, no H2H provided, both recently playing at Tulln on clay), we do not see justification for a price that implies >89% win chance, but we also do not see value to back the underdog at 6.47 with the available data.

Key factors

• • Francesco has recorded grass experience; Kai's profile does not list grass matches
• • Market heavily favors Francesco (implied ~89.2%); our estimate is lower (86%)
• • No injury reports or H2H data in the provided research to materially shift probabilities