Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Uchida is ~33.9%; we estimate ~38%
• • Positive EV of ~0.121 per unit at current odds 2.95

Pros

• + Home advantage and familiar hard-court conditions
• + Price (2.95) offers a clear edge vs our probability model

Cons

• - Uchida's overall season record is below .500 and recent form is mixed
• - No head-to-head data and limited injury/form detail increase variance

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Broom ~72.6%, Uchida ~33.9%) to our estimate of true chance for Kaichi Uchida. Both players have similar ITF-level experience this season and are primarily hard-court players; Uchida benefits from playing in Japan (home crowd/familiar conditions) while Broom is the market favorite based on a slightly stronger win-loss record. There are no injury notes in the supplied research. Given the closeness of their career records and surface fit, we assign Uchida a true win probability materially above the 33.9% implied by 2.95 (we estimate ~38%). At the available decimal price 2.95 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.38*2.95 - 1 = 0.121). The edge is modest but meaningful for a single-match value play; uncertainty remains due to patchy recent form for both players and lack of direct H2H data.

Key factors

• • Home-court advantage for Uchida in Sapporo
• • Both players primarily contest hard-court events (comparable surface fit)
• • Market heavily favors Broom; price suggests >72% which we view as overstated