Kaichi Uchida vs Renta Tokuda
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Renta Tokuda at 1.588 — our conservative 68% win estimate yields ~8% expected ROI versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Tokuda is the clearer hard-court specialist with a much stronger season record
- • Current odds (1.588) understate Tokuda's chance according to our model, creating +EV
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current price (approx. 8% ROI)
- + Strong season form and surface alignment for Tokuda
Cons
- - Limited H2H and final-match variability introduce outcome uncertainty
- - Uchida has prior wins at Sapporo events which could limit blowout risk
Details
We see clear value on Renta Tokuda (away). Tokuda's 46-17 record this season and strong hard-court focus materially outperform Kaichi Uchida's 31-30, who has mixed results across surfaces. The market price of 1.588 implies a win probability of ~62.97%; we estimate Tokuda's true win probability at 68% based on form, surface specialization (mostly hard) and a superior win-loss profile. At our estimate the edge is ~5 percentage points, producing positive expected value: EV = 0.68 * 1.588 - 1 = ~0.08 (8% ROI). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited head-to-head data and tournament-conditions variance, so we use a conservative probability to avoid overstatement of value.
Key factors
- • Tokuda's superior season record (46-17) and stronger hard-court focus
- • Market-implied probability (~62.97%) is below our conservative true estimate (68%)
- • Uchida's marginal overall record (31-30) and mixed-surface results reduce his upset likelihood