Kaitlin Quevedo vs Alice Robbe
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the away player, Alice Robbe, because the 5.0 price offers substantial positive expected value against a market that overstates the favourite's advantage.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Quevedo (~87%) is not supported by the research
- • Robbe at 5.0 yields +0.50 EV under a conservative 30% win-probability estimate
Pros
- + Strong positive expected value at current odds
- + Both players' form and records are similar, supporting an underdog play
Cons
- - Both players have poor recent form — outcomes are less predictable
- - Upset risk and variance are inherent in Challenger-level tennis matches
Details
We see value on Alice Robbe (away). The market is pricing Kaitlin Quevedo as a near-certain winner at 1.15 (implied ~87%), which is not supported by the available form data: both players have identical season records (10-21), similar surface histories (clay and hard) and recent results showing multiple losses at comparable events. There is no clear head-to-head or injury advantage for Quevedo in the Research. We conservatively estimate Robbe's true win probability at 30% (0.30). At the quoted away price of 5.0 this yields EV = 0.30 * 5.0 - 1 = +0.50 (50% ROI on a 1-unit stake), indicating strong value. The market appears to be overstating the favorite's edge (implied 0.87) relative to the evidence, so backing Robbe at current widely-available prices represents a positive expected-value opportunity.
Key factors
- • Identical season win-loss records for both players (10-21)
- • Both players have recent losses at similar Challenger-level hard-court events
- • Surface histories are comparable (Clay and Hard) — no clear surface edge
- • Market price heavily favors the home player (1.15) which implies an unrealistically high win probability