Kaitlin Quevedo vs Angelina Voloshchuk

Highlights

• • Book market implies ~84.4% for the home player (1.185), which is inconsistent with provided profiles
• • With an estimated true probability of 55% for the home player, current prices produce a substantial negative EV

Pros

• + Clear identification of a market discrepancy between implied and estimated probabilities
• + Conservative approach given sparse data avoids overbetting on uncertain edges

Cons

• - Limited research data (no H2H, surface-specific recent results, or injury notes) increases uncertainty
• - If there are external factors not included in the provided sources (late withdrawals, local conditions), our estimate could be off

Details

We compared the market prices to the limited performance data available. The book market makes Kaitlin Quevedo a very heavy favorite at 1.185 (implied ~84.4%), but the research shows both players with nearly identical career records and recent form (both 10-21 in the provided span) and no clear surface or injury edge for Quevedo. Given that parity, we assign a modest edge to the home player but not close to the market-implied 84%. Using an estimated true probability for Quevedo of 55% produces a required fair price of ~1.818; at the quoted 1.185 there is a large negative edge (EV ≈ -0.348 for a 1-unit stake). The away price (4.33) only becomes attractive if we assign a much larger probability to Voloshchuk than the profiles support. With the information given, neither side offers positive expected value at the current publicly-quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability for the home favorite (84.4%) is far higher than our estimated true probability
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage evidence in the research to justify the heavy favorite price