Kaitlin Quevedo vs Elza Tomase

Highlights

• • Both players: ~10 wins, ~21-22 losses — profiles very similar
• • Market price gives extreme edge to home (1.103) that is not supported by the available data

Pros

• + Clear decision: market price and our probability diverge widely
• + Simple rationale based on comparable records and lack of distinguishing info

Cons

• - Research is limited (no H2H, ranking, or specific match-day info) which adds uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors (injury, home advantage, ranking gap) the estimate could be off

Details

We view the market price (Kaitlin Quevedo 1.103 -> implied ~90.7%) as extreme given the available profiles. Both players show nearly identical career records (Quevedo 10-21 in 31 matches; Tomase 10-22 in 32 matches) and similar recent form with no clear surface or head-to-head edge provided in the research. We estimate Quevedo's true win probability around 58%, which would require at least ~1.724 decimal to be profitable. At the current 1.103, the expected return is strongly negative, so there is no value to back the heavy favorite.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and match counts between the two players
• • Research shows poor recent form for both with no clear edge
• • Current market implies an implausibly high ~90.7% probability for the home player