Kaitlin Quevedo vs Alina Korneeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given identical profiles in the research and an outsized market favorite, backing the home underdog Kaitlin Quevedo at 3.52 represents positive expected value under a conservative 40% win-probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies Quevedo win probability ~28%, which seems low relative to the supplied data
- • At our 40% estimate, minimum fair odds are 2.50 and current 3.52 offers clear value
Pros
- + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability estimate
- + Research does not present a clear edge for the favorite to justify short odds
Cons
- - Available research is sparse and both players' records are poor, so uncertainty is high
- - If Korneeva has unreported form/fitness advantages, the market price may be justified
Details
We find value on Kaitlin Quevedo because the available research shows both players with effectively identical limited profiles (both listed 10-21 for the season and similar recent results), yet the market prices Alina Korneeva as a heavy favorite (away 1.279). Given the lack of distinguishing information (no clear surface/injury or H2H edge in the supplied data) the market-implied 28.4% chance for Quevedo appears too low. Conservatively estimating Quevedo's true win probability at 40% produces a positive expected value when backing her at the current home decimal price of 3.52. We use the supplied current odds for the EV calculation and note that Korneeva at 1.279 does not offer value under our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical season records and similar recent results in the provided data (10-21)
- • Market strongly favors the away player (1.279) despite no distinguishing evidence in the supplied research
- • No surface, injury, or H2H difference provided to justify the heavy market skew