Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jenna Defalco

Highlights

• • Implied away probability at current odds is ~17.2%; we estimate ~25%
• • Our min required odds to justify a bet at our estimated probability is 4.0; current 5.8 exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear disparity between implied market probability and our conservative true-probability estimate
• + Large upside due to long odds if the away player wins

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent form and small-sample career data, increasing uncertainty
• - Underdog tennis outcomes are volatile; value can evaporate if unobserved factors favor the favorite

Details

We see a stark discrepancy between the market price and what the limited research suggests. Both players show nearly identical profiles in the provided data (career spans, 10-21 records, recent results and surfaces), so a match-up between them should be much closer than the market implies. The current moneyline of 5.8 for the away player implies a winning chance of ~17.2%; given identical form and no injury or H2H information favoring the home player, we conservatively estimate Jenna Defalco’s true win probability at 25%. That estimate implies the market is offering value on the away at 5.8 (EV = 0.25*5.8 - 1 = +0.45, or +45% expected ROI). The break-even probability for that price is ~17.24%, so our 25% view leaves a tangible margin. We remain conservative because both players have losing overall records and recent poor form, but the bookmaker’s heavy favoritism to Kaitlin Quevedo appears overstated given the available data.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career stats and recent form (10-21 records)
• • Market prices heavily favor the home player (1.12) despite no clear evidence in the research to justify such a gap
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the provided data to materially favor the home player