Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (home) = 49.3%; our estimate = 53.0%
• • Minimum fair decimal odds to justify a bet on Uesugi ≈ 1.887; market offers 2.03

Pros

• + Higher recent win-rate in the supplied records
• + Current price (2.03) offers positive expected value against our probability estimate

Cons

• - Small sample size for Uesugi (14 matches) increases uncertainty
• - Both players lack explicit grass-track records in the provided data, increasing variance

Details

We see value backing Kaito Uesugi at 2.03. From the supplied records Uesugi has a 7-7 career record (50% win rate) across 14 matches and has shown a more favourable recent trend than Ramkumar, who is 9-21 (≈30% win rate) across 30 matches with poor recent results. Neither profile shows strong grass experience in the provided data, which reduces surface bias, so recent form and win-rate matter more. The market implies Uesugi’s win probability at 49.3% (1/2.03). Given Uesugi’s superior raw win-rate in the supplied sample and slightly better recent results, we estimate his true win probability at 53.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 49.3%, producing a positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.076 per 1 unit stake). We therefore recommend the home side because the current decimal price (2.03) exceeds the minimum required fair odds (≈1.887) to produce positive EV based on our estimate.

Key factors

• • Uesugi has a higher win-rate in provided career sample (7-7 vs 9-21)
• • Recent form favors Uesugi in the provided match log; Ramkumar shows recent losses
• • No clear grass advantage for either in the supplied data, so market price and form drive value