Kaja Juvan / Kristina Novak vs Nala Kovacic / Alja Senica

Highlights

• • Home favorite overpriced by the market given supplied form data
• • Away value exists because required odds for break-even (~4.545) are well below the offered 6.42

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current market price (6.42)
• + Limited evidence in research supporting a >90% win chance for the favorite

Cons

• - Research is sparse and lacks H2H or explicit doubles-specific stats for pairs
• - Doubles can be unpredictable; our probability estimate is conservative but uncertain

Details

The market prices the home pair (Juvan/Novak) as an overwhelming favorite at 1.089 (implied ~91.8%). Our read of the supplied player data shows limited recent form and no clear doubles dominance for the home pairing: Juvan and Novak both have weak recent win-loss records (10-21) and Senica shows a similar profile. Doubles outcomes are more volatile and the available information does not justify a >90% win probability for the home team. We estimate the away pair's true win probability at ~22%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~4.545. With available market odds of 6.42 on the away side, the bet offers positive expected value (EV = 0.22 * 6.42 - 1 ≈ +0.412). We therefore recommend backing the away pair at current prices because the market appears to overinflate the favorite relative to the limited-form evidence.

Key factors

• • Market implies an extremely high favorite probability (~91.8%) that is not supported by the limited form data
• • Both home players show modest recent records (10-21) in the supplied profiles, reducing confidence in a near-lock
• • Doubles matches are volatile and underdog upset probability is higher than single-player lines suggest