Kaja Juvan vs Georgia Pedone
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given the near-identical records in the provided profiles, the 8.5 price on Pedone offers substantial value versus an improbably short 1.08 market favorite; we recommend the away side based on estimated probability well above the market-implied level.
Highlights
- • Market implies Pedone has only ~11.8% chance — we estimate ~45%
- • If Pedone truly has even ~30% chance, 8.5 is still highly profitable
Pros
- + Very large positive EV at quoted away price
- + Profiles supplied show parity, supporting a much closer matchup than the market implies
Cons
- - Research is sparse and lacks injuries, rankings, or H2H — increases model uncertainty
- - If there is undisclosed contextual advantage for the home player (injury history, ranking gap, home crowd), our estimate could be overly optimistic
Details
The market prices Kaja Juvan at 1.08 (implied win probability ~92.6%) and Georgia Pedone at 8.5 (implied ~11.8%). The provided profiles show near-identical records (both 10-21) and recent results, indicating parity rather than a one-sided mismatch. Even a conservative assessment that Pedone has a 30–50% chance to win makes the 8.5 quote extremely valuable. Using a midpoint estimated true probability of 45% for Pedone yields a required fair decimal price of ~2.222; the available 8.5 represents substantial positive EV. Upside is large but uncertainty is high due to sparse detailed form/injury/H2H data.
Key factors
- • Both players' provided profiles show identical career records (10-21) — suggests similar baseline ability
- • Market heavily favors the home player at 1.08 which implies an unrealistic ~92.6% win chance given the parity in available data
- • Both players have experience on Clay and Hard per profiles — no clear surface advantage indicated in the research
- • Limited and incomplete recent-form/injury/H2H data increases variance and outcome uncertainty