Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Pedone only ~13%, we assess closer to ~17%
• • EV at current price is ~0.29 units per 1-unit stake using our probability

Pros

• + Large market overpricing of the favourite creates discrepancy to exploit
• + Juvan's documented poor recent results support downgrading her true win probability

Cons

• - Very limited data on Pedone in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Short odds for the favourite can still be realized quickly; variance is high for underdog plays

Details

We see the market has priced Kaja Juvan at 1.095 (implied ~91.3% win chance). The only concrete evidence available shows Juvan with a weak recent record (10-21 across the last year and several recent losses), which makes a true win probability that high implausible. Given the lack of information on Giorgia Pedone in the provided research, a conservative uplift to Pedone's chance is warranted versus the market. Comparing our estimated true probability for Pedone (17%) to the current decimal price 7.59 (implied ~13.2%), we find positive expected value because 0.17*7.59 - 1 > 0. We prefer the away side as a value bet due to Juvan's poor form and the market's extreme favoring of the home player.

Key factors

• • Juvan's recent season record is poor (10-21), indicating form concerns
• • Market price for Juvan (1.095) implies an outsized ~91% chance which seems overstated given recent results
• • No data provided on Pedone means the market may be overestimating the favourite; baseline chance for the underdog exceeds the bookmaker-implied 13%