Kaja Juvan vs Giorgia Pedone
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices Juvan at 1.091 relative to her recent form; without independent evidence on Pedone we cannot find positive EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Book heavily favors Juvan (1.091) despite weak recent results
- • Fair price for Juvan (our estimate) is around 1.25; current market is too short
Pros
- + Juvan is the market favorite and likely the stronger player on paper
- + If additional info later confirms Pedone as significantly weaker, the market favorite could still be reasonable
Cons
- - Provided research shows Juvan's underperformance (10-21); that undermines the 91.7% market probability
- - No data on Pedone prevents assessing whether the 8.0 underdog line has hidden value
Details
We find no value at the current market prices. The book market is pricing Kaja Juvan as an overwhelming favorite at 1.091 (implied ~91.7%), but the only provided performance data shows a weak recent record (10-21 for the noted span) and multiple recent losses, which does not justify such a near-certain market probability. There is also no usable data on Giorgia Pedone in the provided research to responsibly up-value the underdog at 8.0. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Juvan of 80% (reflecting that she is likely the stronger player but far from a 92% certainty given the poor recent form), the fair decimal price would be ~1.25. At the quoted 1.091 the expected return is negative (EV ≈ -0.127 per 1 unit). Because neither side shows clear positive EV at available prices (and we lack opponent data to justify backing the longshot), we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Kaja Juvan's provided recent form is poor (10-21 record across the documented span), reducing confidence in a >90% market probability
- • Market-implied probability for Juvan at 1.091 (~91.7%) appears overstated versus observed form
- • No data for Giorgia Pedone in the provided research prevents a reliable up-valuation of the 8.0 underdog price