Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Ryser is only ~17.9% at 5.6
• • Our estimated true probability for Ryser is 45%, implying very large upside at current odds

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current away price (ev = 1.52 per unit)
• + Ryser's extensive match history suggests steadier baseline level than Juvan's small recent sample

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and contains sparse recent-match detail; profiles may be incomplete
• - Heavy market favoritism toward the home player could reflect information not present in the provided research (injury, recent form, ranking)

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market price and the limited player data provided. The book market prices Kaja Juvan at 1.15 (implied win probability ~87%), but her recent recorded career sample here (10-21) shows poor results and a small-match sample. Valentina Ryser's record in the provided data (559-507) implies a much stronger, experienced player with a career win rate above 50%. Surface exposure is similar for both (clay/hard) so there is no clear surface advantage for Juvan in the research. Given Ryser's greater career win rate and experience versus Juvan's weak recent record, we estimate Ryser's true chance materially exceeds the market-implied ~17.9% for the 5.6 price, producing clear positive expected value on the away moneyline at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Provided career records: Ryser shows long-term winning record (559-507) vs Juvan's small-sample poor record (10-21)
• • Both players listed as playing clay and hard — no clear surface bias in the research
• • Market heavily favors Juvan (1.15) creating an unusually large price on Ryser (5.6)