Kaja Juvan / Kristina Novak vs Nala Kovacic / Alja Senica

Highlights

• • Home price 1.083 implies ~92.4% probability
• • Our conservative estimate for the home pair is 88%, which makes the available price negative EV

Pros

• + Heavy market confidence in the favorites reduces variance risk if simply backing them
• + Some familiarity with Kaja Juvan as a higher-profile player could justify a high baseline probability

Cons

• - Offered favorite price is shorter than our fair value -> negative EV
• - Player profiles supplied show limited supporting evidence and poor recent results, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.083 -> 92.4%) to our assessed win chance for Kaja Juvan / Kristina Novak. The available player profiles show modest recent results and limited clear doubles data for all four players, so we adopt a conservative true probability of 88% for the home pair. At that estimate the fair price would be ~1.136 decimal. The offered 1.083 is shorter than our fair price, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.88 * 1.083 - 1 = -0.048). The underdog price (6.26) would only be attractive if we believed their true win probability is >= ~16.0%; we find insufficient evidence to justify that. Given the very short favorite price and limited additional data to shift our probability materially, there is no positive-value side at the current quotes.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is extremely high (≈92%)
• • Player profiles show limited and modest recent form with no clear doubles edge
• • No injury or surface advantages identified in the supplied research