Kaja Juvan vs Amarissa Kiara Toth

Highlights

• • Market implies ~86.3% for Juvan; we estimate ~65%
• • Required decimal odds for value are ~1.538; market is 1.159

Pros

• + Juvan is the clear market favorite, indicating perceived class advantage
• + The match is not live and prices are stable, so there is time to wait for better value

Cons

• - Available data shows similar records and recent losses for both players, limiting confidence in a much higher probability
• - Current odds are much too short to offer positive expected value

Details

We find no value on either side. The market prices Kaja Juvan at 1.159 (implied win probability ~86.3%), which is far shorter than we estimate. The public research shows both players with nearly identical recent profiles (31 matches, 10-21 records, activity on clay and hard and recent losses), so there is no clear performance evidence to justify an ~86% market probability. Conservatively, we estimate Juvan's true win probability at 65% given slight home/favored status but mixed recent form; that implies fair odds of ~1.538. At the quoted 1.159 the expected ROI is negative (EV ≈ -0.247), so we will not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records and recent form (10-21 over 31 matches), reducing a clear edge
• • Market-implied probability (≈86.3%) for Juvan is substantially higher than our conservative true probability estimate (65%)
• • Recent results for both players include multiple losses on hard courts, suggesting uncertainty rather than dominance