Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Vito (~79.4%) far exceeds our estimate (62%).
• • Negative EV at current favorite price: approximately -0.219 per unit staked.

Pros

• + We use a conservative, evidence-based estimate reflecting limited player dominance.
• + Avoids chasing heavy favorites where books may have skewed prices.

Cons

• - Sparse data on opponent and match specifics leaves room for model error.
• - If there are unreported factors favoring Vito (injury to opponent, surface edge), our estimate may be pessimistic.

Details

We estimate Vito Tonejc is the clear favorite based on the available profile but his 8-7 pro record and limited match history do not justify the market-implied probability implied by 1.26. The market price (1.26 → ~79.4%) overstates his likelihood to win relative to a conservative, evidence-based estimate (~62%) given his modest results, mixed surface experience, and lack of information on Kale Mize. With that estimated true probability, the current away price yields a negative expected value and we cannot identify value on the home underdog either because we lack reliable information on Kale Mize to confidently assign a higher true probability than the market-implied 27.8% (3.6). Given the thin data set and uncertainty, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Vito Tonejc has a limited pro sample (15 matches) and an 8-7 record — not dominant
• • Market strongly favors Vito at 1.26 (≈79.4% implied), which substantially exceeds our conservative win estimate
• • Little-to-no reliable information available on opponent Kale Mize or match surface/conditions increases uncertainty