Highlights

• • Ayumi's long track record and higher career win rate vs Kallista's inexperience
• • Current decimal 1.301 offers a small but positive edge vs our probability

Pros

• + Veteran consistency and multi-surface experience
• + Market price slightly understates Ayumi's probability in our model

Cons

• - Edge is modest — tight margin vs market implies limited upside
• - Limited recent head-to-head/form detail and match variance can negate small EV

Details

We find value on Ayumi Koshiishi at the current decimal price of 1.301. The market-implied probability is ~76.8%, while our assessment of Ayumi's true win probability is higher (80%). Ayumi brings a large experience advantage (career span 2007–2025 with 559 wins across surfaces) versus Kallista Liu (career beginning 2024 with a 10-21 record). Kallista's limited match-winning history and poorer recent form make her an underdog prospect here. Given the narrow but positive edge (EV ≈ +4.1% at 1.301), the price represents slight value relative to our estimate. We also consider surface adaptability and match toughness in favor of the veteran; downside risk exists due to limited recent head-to-head/form details and tournament variance.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career win differential favoring Ayumi Koshiishi
• • Kallista Liu's limited career wins (10-21) and recent poor form
• • Market price (1.301) implies probability slightly below our estimate, creating a small positive EV