Highlights

• • Market implies Horvit ~70.6% but her recent form suggests lower true probability
• • Home price 2.64 > fair price 2.222 according to our model

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between market-implied and our estimated probability
• + Decent margin between required odds for break-even and current price

Cons

• - Very limited scouting data on Kamila Neradova increases uncertainty
• - No H2H info and surface/venue specifics are incomplete, raising variance risk

Details

We see the market pricing Mia Horvit as a strong favorite (decimal 1.417, implied ~70.6%) despite a documented 10-21 recent career record and several recent losses. The available match data shows inconsistent recent form for Horvit on clay and hard, suggesting her true win probability versus an unprofiled opponent is substantially lower than the market implies. We estimate Kamila Neradova's true win probability at 45% (market-implied 37.9% at 2.64), which makes the home price 2.64 offer positive expected value. At our estimate, the minimum fair decimal price for value is ~2.222; the current 2.64 therefore yields an estimated ROI of +0.188 (18.8%) per unit staked. We acknowledge uncertainty from limited info on Neradova and lack of H2H, so our view relies on Horvit's poor recent results and inconsistency.

Key factors

• • Mia Horvit's poor recent overall record (10-21) and multiple recent losses
• • Market-implied probability heavily favors Horvit (~70.6%) which appears overstated given her form
• • Underdog price 2.64 exceeds our fair threshold (2.222) creating positive expected value