Highlights

• • Karim implied probability at 1.662 is ~60.2% vs our estimate 55.4%.
• • Required min decimal odds for value on Karim is ~1.804; current price is shorter.

Pros

• + Karim has a marginally better career win-rate, which the market recognizes.
• + Matchup is low-profile; lines could drift, presenting future opportunities.

Cons

• - Both players have poor records and unclear recent form, increasing outcome variance.
• - Current odds do not offer positive EV for either side based on our estimate.

Details

We compared the market prices to our estimate of the true probabilities using only the supplied player profiles and recent form. Karim Ibrahim is the market favorite at 1.662 (implied ~60.2%) while Akram El Sallaly is priced at 2.13 (implied ~47.0%). Both players have poor career records (Karim 11-40, Akram 15-71) and recent results show losses for each, so we expect a much closer matchup than the market implies. Using the relative career win rates as a baseline (Karim ~21.6% vs Akram ~17.4%), we estimate Karim's win probability around 55.4%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.804; the current favorite price of 1.662 is too short and produces a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend a back of either player at the listed odds.

Key factors

• • Both players have very low career win rates; Karim slightly better (11-40 vs 15-71).
• • Recent form shows losses for both players; no clear momentum edge.
• • Market heavily favors home (1.662) but our model estimates Karim ~55.4% — not enough to justify the offered price.