Karim Ibrahim vs Liam Broady
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value present at current prices: Broady is the clear favorite but the 1.06 price is slightly too short versus our 92% estimate, producing a small negative EV; we recommend taking no side.
Highlights
- • Broady: 33-20 career record, recent hard-court wins
- • Ibrahim: 6-17 career record, limited proven form
Pros
- + Market correctly identifies Broady as heavy favorite
- + Surface and recent results support Broady's edge
Cons
- - Current favorite price (1.06) implies higher probability than our model — negative EV
- - Huge mismatch means any small variance or upset would be high-impact
Details
We compared the quoted prices to our model based purely on the provided research. Liam Broady has a substantially better record (33-20 vs 6-17), more match experience on multiple surfaces including hard, and recent M15 hard-court wins; Karim Ibrahim is inexperienced with a poor overall record and limited recent success. The market price for Broady (1.06 => implied 94.3%) is more aggressive than our estimated true win probability (92%), so the favorite is overpriced relative to our view and offers negative expected value. The long price on Ibrahim (7.00) implies ~14.3% win chance, which is far above our estimate for him and likewise represents no value.
Key factors
- • Liam Broady superior overall record and recent hard-court wins
- • Karim Ibrahim limited experience and poor win-loss (6-17)
- • Market-implied probability for Broady (≈94.3%) exceeds our estimated win probability (92%)