Karine Sarkisova vs Franziska Sziedat
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small-value opportunity on the home player at 2.04 because the players' profiles and recent form are essentially even, implying a ~50% true chance for Sarkisova versus a market-implied ~49% — producing ~+2% EV.
Highlights
- • Profiles and form are effectively symmetric — no clear performance edge
- • Current price 2.04 exceeds our fair price of 2.00, creating a small positive EV
Pros
- + Market appears to overvalue the away player given symmetric data
- + Available odds (2.04) are above our min required odds (2.00), producing +EV
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈2% ROI) and sensitive to small changes in true probability
- - Limited data depth (no H2H, no confirmed surface or fitness advantages) increases uncertainty
Details
We assess value by comparing the market-implied probability to our estimated true probability. The published profiles show both players with virtually identical records (10-21) and similar recent results and surfaces, so there is no clear quality edge for either player. The market prices Franziska Sziedat as a clear favorite (1.71, implied ~58.5%) while Karine Sarkisova is priced at 2.04 (implied ~49.0%). Given the symmetry in form, surface experience, and lack of injury/H2H information, we estimate the true win probability for Sarkisova at ~50.0%. At that probability her fair decimal price is 2.00; the available 2.04 therefore offers a small positive edge. Using 2.04 for the EV calculation yields EV = 0.50 * 2.04 - 1 = +0.02 (2% ROI). Because the edge is modest and based on limited differentiation between players, this is a small-value, moderate-risk play rather than a strong, low-risk wager.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
- • Market favors the away player strongly (implied ~58.5%) despite symmetric evidence
- • No injury notes, H2H or surface advantage in the available research to justify the market gap