Highlights

• • Research shows near-identical records and recent form for both players
• • Away price 2.47 yields ~23.5% expected ROI on a conservative 50% win probability

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge vs implied bookmaker probability at current odds
• + Conservative 50/50 probability is supported by the provided parity in data

Cons

• - Limited information: no H2H, seeding, local conditions, or injury detail to refine the estimate
• - If there is an unreported advantage for the home player, the true probability could be lower than our estimate

Details

We see virtually identical career records, recent form and surface history for Karine Sarkisova and Kiara Zabkova in the provided data, which supports treating this matchup as roughly even (about 50/50). The book market prices Karine (home) at 1.476 (implied ~67.8%) and Kiara (away) at 2.47 (implied ~40.5%); those odds diverge substantially from our estimated true probabilities. Using a conservative 50% true win probability for Kiara, the away price 2.47 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.5 * 2.47 - 1 = +0.235), so the away side represents value at current widely available prices. Key caveats are limited unique differentiators in the research (no H2H, no injury or surface advantage noted), so our 50% estimate is conservative and driven by parity in the provided profiles.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical listed career records and recent match patterns in the provided data
• • No injuries, head-to-head, or clear surface advantage noted in the research — suggests parity
• • Book odds imply a large favorite but research does not justify that disparity, creating value on the away price