Highlights

• • Market implies ~84.8% chance for Poling; our estimate is ~52%
• • Required fair odds for a positive EV are ~1.923, well above the quoted 1.179

Pros

• + Poling has ATP Challenger experience and some grass matches noted
• + Market clearly views him as favorite, so lines are available to shop if new info appears

Cons

• - Poling's overall career record is below .500 (27-30) and recent results in the research are mixed
• - No data on Gavin Goode in the provided research increases model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Karl Poling 1.179 => implied win probability 84.8%) to our internal estimate using only the supplied research. Poling's career win-loss (27-30, 47.4%) and limited recent data do not support an 85% win probability even on grass; there is no information on Gavin Goode to justify market confidence. Conservatively we estimate Poling's true win probability at 52%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.923. At the quoted market price of 1.179 this would produce a strongly negative expected value (EV = 0.52 * 1.179 - 1 ≈ -0.387). Because EV is negative at the available price, we do not recommend taking the heavily-favored home moneyline.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (84.8%) far exceeds evidence from Poling's career record (27-30)
• • Limited and mixed recent results in the provided match log; no convincing form edge
• • No available data on opponent Gavin Goode in the supplied research, increasing uncertainty