Karl Poling vs Daniel Masur

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Poling is ~29.9%, well below our 45% estimate
• • Fair decimal for Poling ≈2.222; available price 3.35 offers substantial value

Pros

• + Clear quantitative edge between our probability and market-implied probability
• + Both players are hard-court competent so no obvious surface bias against Poling

Cons

• - Limited match-level detail, no head-to-head data, and uncertain real-time injury/fitness updates
• - Small/volatile sample sizes for both players make estimates less stable

Details

We estimate Karl Poling has a materially higher chance to win than the market implies. Both players have similar career-level records on hard courts in the provided data (Poling ~47% win rate vs Masur ~44%), but the market heavily favors Masur at decimal 1.30 (implied win probability ~76.9%). Using the available match history and surface profile, we conservatively estimate Poling's true win probability at 45%. At that probability the fair price for Poling is 2.222 decimal; the offered price 3.35 represents significant value. Calculation: EV = 0.45 * 3.35 - 1 = 0.5075 (≈0.508), so we expect ~50.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake at the quoted odds. Caveats: no head-to-head or up-to-the-minute injury details were provided and sample sizes are modest, so we use a conservative probability rather than an extreme edge.

Key factors

• • Poling's historical win rate (≈47%) slightly exceeds Masur's (≈44%) in the supplied profiles
• • Both players have recent activity on hard courts, so surface advantage is neutral
• • Market strongly favors Masur (1.30) creating a potential mispricing versus comparable career records