Karmine Corp vs Vitality
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected at current prices; home is a heavy favorite but the quoted odds do not offer positive expected value under conservative assumptions.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (raw) ≈ 84.8%; our conservative estimate = 82%
- • Required decimal odds for positive EV at our estimate: 1.220; current is 1.179
Pros
- + Clear market consensus on the favorite reduces variance for bettors who prefer favorites
- + Low payout variance on favorite outcomes
Cons
- - Quoted favorite price (1.179) does not meet our minimum required odds for positive EV
- - No available external research (form/injury/H2H) to justify deviating from conservative probability
Details
We estimate the market strongly favors Karmine Corp (home). The current decimal moneyline of 1.179 implies a raw probability of ~84.8% (normalized ~81.0% accounting for vig). With no external match data returned and using a conservative true-win estimate for Karmine Corp of 82% (we err slightly below the book's implied mark to reflect uncertainty), the expected value at the quoted home price is negative: EV = 0.82 * 1.179 - 1 = -0.033. To achieve positive EV on Karmine Corp with our probability, bookmakers would need to offer at least 1.220. Given the lack of supporting research, potential information gaps (roster/form/injury), and the small negative EV at current pricing, we do not recommend backing either side.
Key factors
- • Current market price heavily favors Karmine Corp (1.179) implying ~84.8% raw probability
- • No external match data, form, or injury information available — higher uncertainty
- • Our conservative estimated true probability (82%) still produces negative EV at the quoted home price