Highlights

• • Market-implied win chance for Eubanks: ~69.3%; our estimate: 72%
• • Projected ROI ~3.97% at current odds (1.444)

Pros

• + Eubanks has documented grass experience while Samrej's record shows primarily hard/clay
• + Odds offer a measurable edge; required fair price (1.389) is below current market quote (1.444)

Cons

• - Edge is modest (only ~3.97% ROI) — sensitive to small errors in probability estimation
• - Limited detailed recent-form data available for both players on grass increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.444 = 69.3%) to our estimated true probability for Christopher Eubanks winning on grass. Based on surface specialization (Eubanks has prior grass experience while Kasidit Samrej's recorded matches are on clay/hard), Eubanks' higher-level event experience, and the limited grass profile for Samrej, we estimate Eubanks' true win probability at 72%. At the current decimal odds of 1.444 this produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.72 * 1.444 - 1 = 0.0397 (≈3.97% ROI). The bookmaker-implied price understates Eubanks' edge by roughly 2.7 percentage points (72.0% vs 69.3%), so we recommend the away side at the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Surface: grass favors Eubanks who has grass listed in his surfaces; Samrej's profile shows clay/hard play only
• • Experience: Eubanks has higher-level event exposure (e.g., Grand Slam), indicating stronger performance capacity against Challenger opponents
• • Market pricing: implied probability (69.3%) is slightly below our estimated 72% true chance, creating value