Highlights

• • Kasidit: strong overall record and recent qualifying wins
• • Linghao: very limited wins (3-12) but market already prices near-certainty for Kasidit

Pros

• + Kasidit has a decisively better record and recent form in qualifying events
• + Opponent's low win rate implies a high likelihood of Kasidit victory

Cons

• - Neither player shows documented grass experience in the provided research, increasing uncertainty
• - Market odds (1.052) already imply an excessively high probability, removing value

Details

We view Kasidit Samrej as the clear favorite based on a much stronger overall record (46-30 vs 3-12) and recent qualifying wins, but the market price (1.052 decimal, implied ~95.0% win chance) overstates the certainty of victory. Neither player has documented grass experience in the provided profiles, which increases upset potential and reduces the edge implied by the heavy favorite price. Given Linghao Zhang's very poor record and Kasidit's superior form, we estimate Kasidit's true win probability at ~88%, which does not justify wagering at 1.052 because the break-even probability for those odds is ~95.05%. Therefore there is no positive expected value on the favorite at current quotes.

Key factors

• • Large career and recent-form advantage for Kasidit Samrej (46-30) vs Linghao Zhang (3-12)
• • Both players lack documented grass-court experience in the supplied data, raising upset variance
• • Market heavily favors Kasidit (1.052) implying >95% probability, which we find overstated