Highlights

• • Samrej much more experienced and winning far more matches
• • Current odds demand >94% win chance to be +EV, which we consider unlikely

Pros

• + Clear form and record advantage for Samrej
• + Match played on a surface both have recent experience on

Cons

• - Market price is extremely short for the favorite, removing value
• - Small-sample noise or an upset by Zhang would rapidly make a short market profitable for the book

Details

We estimate Kasidit Samrej is the clear favorite given a 46-30 record and substantially greater match volume compared with Linghao Zhang's 3-12 record. Both players have recent matches on hard courts, which removes a surface edge for the underdog, but the scale of the market price (home 1.06 implied ≈94.3%) requires an extremely high true-win probability to be +EV. Based on form, sample sizes, and the quality gap, we estimate Samrej's true win probability at 88%. That implies minimum fair decimal odds of ~1.136 for a profitable bet; the current price of 1.06 is too short and produces negative expected value (EV = 0.88 * 1.06 - 1 ≈ -0.067). Therefore we do not recommend wagering at the present market price.

Key factors

• • Large disparity in career records and recent outcomes (Samrej 46-30 vs Zhang 3-12)
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity, so surface does not favor the underdog
• • Market-implied probability (≈94.3%) substantially exceeds our estimated true probability (88%)