Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~95.6%; our estimate is 97%
• • Positive EV is small (~1.46% ROI) due to extremely short home price

Pros

• + Clear disparity in recent form and career win rates favoring Kasidit Samrej
• + Current market price (1.046) offers a slight mathematical edge if our probability holds

Cons

• - Neither player has documented grass results, increasing model uncertainty
• - Edge is small and could be erased by variance or last-minute issues

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Kasidit Samrej (1/1.046 = 95.6%) to our estimated true win probability of 97%. Samrej has a substantially stronger recent record (46-30) and qualifying wins versus Masabayashi's weaker overall record (13-27) and recent losses; both players lack grass-specific data, which raises uncertainty, but the form and depth advantage points to Samrej being the clear favorite. At the current home price (1.046) the book is underestimating Samrej by ~1.4 percentage points, producing a small positive edge (EV ≈ 0.0146 per unit staked). Because the edge is small and surface uncertainty remains, we recommend a cautious, single-side value play on the home player only if the quoted price is available at or above 1.046.

Key factors

• • Kasidit Samrej's superior overall record and recent qualifying wins
• • Tomohiro Masabayashi's poor recent form and inferior career win rate
• • Both players lack grass-track history, adding uncertainty to any estimate