Highlights

• • Favored player (Away) priced at 1.22 implies ~82% chance
• • Our conservative estimate (80%) yields EV = -0.024, so we pass

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on the favorite, indicating bookmaker confidence
• + Available price is stable and widely available

Cons

• - Price does not offer positive expected value versus our estimate
• - Insufficient additional research data (injuries, recent form, H2H) to justify adjusting probabilities upward

Details

We compared the listed moneyline (Away 1.22, Home 4.00) to our conservative win-probability estimate for the favorite (Yu Hsiou Hsu). The implied probability of the 1.22 price is ~81.97%, while our estimated true probability for Hsu is 80.0%. At the available price the expected value is slightly negative (EV = 0.80 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.024), so no value exists at current market odds. There is limited additional information in the research (only surface = outdoor hard), so we remain conservative in our probability estimate and therefore recommend no bet unless the price moves to at least the min_required_decimal_odds shown below.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Away at 1.22 (implied ~82%); our estimate is slightly lower at 80%
• • Surface is outdoor hard (no additional player-specific surface data provided)
• • Research is limited (no injury, form, or H2H details), so we use a conservative probability