Highlights

• • Market implies 50% for Giunta (2.00) but our model estimates 54%
• • Giunta's larger sample and steadier recent form drive the edge

Pros

• + Positive expected value at widely-available 2.00 price
• + Decision based on greater sample size and clearer recent trend

Cons

• - Margins are modest (EV 0.08) — not a large edge
• - Limited direct H2H or specific surface/venue detail in provided research increases uncertainty

Details

We view the market as overvaluing Kasra Rahmani (home) despite limited pro sample and mixed recent results. The current market prices Rahmani at 1.752 (implied ~57.1%) and Giunta at 2.00 (implied 50.0%). After weighing career sample sizes, recent form, and surface experience, we estimate Massimo Giunta to be the more likely winner at ~54.0%. At the available away price of 2.00 this produces positive value (EV = 0.54*2.00 - 1 = 0.08). Key drivers are Giunta's much larger match sample and steadier results versus Rahmani's limited and inconsistent record; there are no injury flags in the provided material and both have experience on clay/hard. Given those factors the away price of 2.00 offers a modest edge relative to our probability model.

Key factors

• • Giunta has a much larger professional sample (118 matches) vs Rahmani (27), giving more reliable form signal
• • Recent results: Rahmani's recent matches are mixed/poor while Giunta shows steadier outcomes in the provided recent logs
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard (match surface not specified), so no strong surface advantage is indicated